Towards a national model of humus (carbon) budget management in soils of agroecosystems in the Russian Federation

The prospect of adapting two methods for monitoring the fertility of agricultural soils (humus balance, HB) under spring and winter wheat crops (hereinafter referred to as grain crops) developed in the Russian Federation (RF) for the purposes of climate projects has been studied. It was revealed that the RosNIIzemproekt method (1998) underestimates the HB average value to
-7.7 c/ha for RF. The RosNIIzemproekt method (1998) has logical errors in the calculation model and is not recommended for use. The TsINAO method (2000) has a more logical calculation model. According to this method, the average value of HB in soils for RF is generally positive and amounts to 3.3 c/ha (0.71 tCO₂-eq/ha carbon units). This value constitutes ≈0.3% of average humus reserves in arable soils of the RF (108 tС/ha). The annual value of change in humus content under spring and winter wheat is incommensurably less than the total humus reserves in the soil. Statistically reliable assessment of changes in humus content requires a huge number of soil samples. This makes the verification procedure economically inexpedient. Another option is proposed to increase the time of humus accumulation. It is considered (IPCC, 2003) that a 20-year accumulation period is sufficient, which corresponds to the duration of soil climate projects. A coefficient (0.216) has been proposed for converting humus reserves (c/ha) to the value of a carbon unit (tCO₂-eq/ha). The total sequestration of carbon by soils under grain crops in 2022 was about 11 million 914 thousand tCO₂-eq. HB accounting significantly compensates for calculated emissions from agricultural production and reduces them by almost 10% (from 116 to 105 million tons CO₂-eq in 2022). For both models of fertility monitoring, an assessment was made of the quality of the regression dependence of HB on the total biomass of photosynthesis (TBP) in soils under grain crops. It is shown that according to Fisher's t-test at a 5% significance level, the studied relationship is significant and characterized by the squares of the correlation coefficient (R²) equal to 0.554 and 0.998. In accordance with the Chaddock scale, the closeness of the correlative relationship between HB and TPB for winter wheat is assessed as high, and for spring wheat as very high. 

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